Markets Price Netherlands Rout: 43.25pp Surge to 99.9%

Markets opened Netherlands at 56.65%, with Sweden priced at 20.2% and the draw at 23.15%. The home side entered as favorites but faced meaningful doubt — nearly half the probability mass sat outside a Dutch victory. The single-source archetype signals one primary venue handling the $22.4M in volume, with limited cross-platform arbitrage. Sweden's 20.2% line suggested markets saw a realistic upset path, while the draw commanded nearly a quarter of the probability space. This was competitive pricing, not a mismatch: markets gave the underdog credible chances.

From open to close, markets erased all doubt: Netherlands surged from 56.65% to 99.9%, while draw and Sweden each collapsed from 23.15% and 20.2% to just 0.05%. The home side's 43.25pp gain came directly from the alternatives — draw probability fell 23.1pp, Sweden fell 20.15pp. The 1353 tape records document the repricing process across the match window. The 99.9% close reflects a market that saw the result as comprehensively decided. With $22.4M in volume and a single-source archetype, probability movement faced no cross-platform friction.

The market's call proved correct: Netherlands won. The 2.3 surprise index indicates a result markets anticipated but needed match evidence to price at 99.9%. The 43.25pp drift represents decisive confirmation — the favorite won convincingly enough to erase all uncertainty. $22.4M in volume flowing through a single source suggests concentrated conviction, with probability mass migrating steadily toward the home outcome. Markets didn't merely identify the winner; they priced a dominant performance. Sweden's probability collapsed from 20.2% to 0.05%, while the draw suffered parallel compression.