World Cup Daily
Daily prediction-market & sportsbook intelligence for the 2026 World Cup.
Every match day: blended consensus from Polymarket, Kalshi, and nine de-vigged sportsbooks. Cross-platform spreads. Drift since the previous snapshot. The archetype that defines each fixture.
- Coverage
- 11 Jun 2026 — Final
- Cadence
- Daily, ~09:00 ET
- Sources
- Polymarket · Kalshi · 9 sportsbooks
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The Guide · Start Here
How to Read Tater
What the market believes vs what you actually pay. Sportsbook vig, exchange commission, prediction-market fees, and the star that does the math for you. The honest guide to the whole board.
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Semifinals · The Final Four Decided
The Window Pays Off
Two coin-flip semifinals, two fallen favorites, and the tournament's one reliable law expiring when the stakes peaked. England's leg peaked at 68.5 percent before a 67-point snap to Argentina, France collapsed under one percent as Spain closed it out, and we caught every second of it live.
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Mid-Term Report · Before the Semifinals
The Market's Report Card
Ninety-six settled matches, favorites 65 and 31, a pricing score that beats a coin flip by about thirty percent, and the signature the quarterfinals sealed: twenty-five regulation draws against eight outright favorite defeats. Plus what the trophy board says about France, England, Spain and Argentina.
Read the report card →
Tonight · Round of 16 Flagship
Norway Killed the Chalk. Tonight: the Derby and the Dead Heat.
Brazil fell as a 54 percent favorite and our tape caught the 39-point earthquake in four seconds. Tonight: an Iberian derby the venues price to the decimal, and a USA side that quietly became the favorite. The full window, instruments hot.
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Tonight · Round of 16
When the Market Can't Decide, the Fees Decide
Mexico vs England is the fifth-tightest game of all 86 settled: England 39, Mexico 31, the draw 30. On a board this level the fee math picks the venue, and on the draw leg the cheapest sticker loses after fees. The full arithmetic, plus the hosts' 52.4M-contract heart.
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Special Edition · July 4
No Favorite Lost in Regulation. Five Drew. One Was Argentina.
The market's Round of 32 scorecard, the Round of 16 board, France at 35 cents, a USA-Belgium dead heat on Independence Day weekend, and where the fee math says the value sits. Written on a lens we recalibrated this morning.
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Knockout Special · Market Intelligence
Ten Men, Two Goals, One Fifteen-Minute Panic
USA 2-0 Bosnia, read through our one-second market tape: the Balogun spike, the eighteen-point red-card crash, and the free kick that ended the argument.
Read the knockout special →
Group Stage Wrap · Market Intelligence
The Group Stage Through the Market's Eyes
Tater priced all 44 World Cup group-stage matches second by second. The chalk that held, the stuns that did not, and the draw the market kept missing.
Read the group-stage report →
Recently played
Settled matches, archived: the market read that stood right before kickoff.
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