Tater Research
The cross-platform analytical layer for prediction markets and sportsbooks.
Long-form, data-driven case studies built from minute- and second-resolution public API data across Polymarket, Kalshi, and the European bookmaker consensus. Open methodology, open datasets, reproducible findings.
Live · Updated every minute
⚡ The Pulse
The biggest moves today, the narrative briefs, and the divergence alerts across Kalshi, Polymarket, and sportsbooks — in one scrollable feed.
Open the Pulse →
Internal Preview
Market Pulse — editorial review
Live tape briefs, per-venue prices, movements, and divergence across Kalshi, Polymarket, and sportsbooks. Editorial sign-off surface.
Open Market Pulse →
The Guide · Start Here
How to Read Tater
What the market believes vs what you actually pay. Sportsbook vig, exchange commission, prediction-market fees, and the star that does the math for you.
Read the guide →
New Case Study · Market Infrastructure
Who Resolves the Music Markets?
We classified 23,105 Kalshi music markets by the referee named in their own rules: four regimes, a four-year Luminate drought, a pivot nobody announced, and a Spotify manipulation scandal three months later. The referee is the risk.
Read the case study →
Featured series
World Cup Daily
Daily prediction-market & sportsbook intelligence for the 2026 World Cup
Every match day: blended consensus from Polymarket, Kalshi, and nine de-vigged sportsbooks — cross-platform spreads, drift since the prior snapshot, and the archetype that defines each fixture. Coverage runs through the Final.
Read the series →
Case studies
- 12 min read
Championship Week Through the Cross-Platform Lens
Two championship events. Five days. Twelve pricing sources. What prediction markets and sportsbooks see differently.
The 2026 UEFA Champions League Final went to penalties and the NBA Western Conference Finals went to a Game 7 road upset. We tracked both across Polymarket, Kalshi, and ten sportsbooks — pre-game, in-play, and post-resolution. The signature finding: the 17.2-point gap between PSG's 90-minute and outright probabilities encoded a 59% conditional that PSG would win in extra time or penalties. It did. Plus the NBA total market that corrected itself from a 23.5-point miss to 1.5 across three games.
Read the case study →
- 14 min read
The Anatomy of a Final: How Three Markets Watched Olympiacos Beat Real Madrid
A minute-by-minute reconstruction of moneyline, spread, and total movement across Polymarket, Kalshi, and ten major sportsbooks before, during, and after the 2026 EuroLeague championship game.
At 19:28 UTC, the price of an Olympiacos win fell to 49.5 cents for exactly one minute — for sixty seconds the market thought Real Madrid would take the title. Forty-three minutes later it was certain of the opposite. This study reconstructs the full pre-game, immediate pre-game, and in-play windows from 1,991 one-minute Polymarket points, 577 Kalshi candlesticks, 2,462 trades, and 95 sportsbook snapshots across ten books in three regions.
Read the case study →
- 18 min read
The Long Wrong, The Smart Exit, and the 25-Minute Truth
A cross-platform microstructure reconstruction of Eurovision 2026 across Polymarket, Kalshi, and the European bookmaker consensus.
Three independent betting systems all priced Finland as the runaway favourite. Bulgaria — the eventual winner — sat at 2–3% across every system for most of the cycle. This study reconstructs the full cycle from public API data at minute and second resolution, including the six pre-broadcast volume shocks on Finland and the precise sequence in which the prediction markets repriced Bulgaria's win.
Read the case study →
Subscribe to Tater Research
Get future publications in your inbox. No spam.