Markets nail USA victory as probabilities surge to near-certainty

USA's win probability surged from 61.69% at kickoff to 99.9% by full time. Australia's chances collapsed from 16.41% to just 0.05%, while the draw probability fell from 21.9% to 0.05%. The market correctly identified the home team as favorite and tracked their dominance throughout the match.

The surprise index of 66.7 indicates the outcome was somewhat unexpected relative to opening probabilities. Markets opened USA at 61.69%, suggesting confidence but not certainty. The final 99.9% probability reflects complete market consensus by match end — a one-sided contest confirmed by price action.

This replay draws from a single market source archetype with 1493 price snapshots recorded and downsampled for analysis. The tape captured the full probability arc from opening bell to final whistle, tracking trader sentiment as the match unfolded.