Sweden Crushes Tunisia as Markets Surge from Near Coin-Flip to Certainty

Markets opened with Sweden priced at 50.75%, barely above even money in a matchup the surprise index pegged at 49.5—essentially a coin flip. Tunisia stood at 20.89%, with the draw commanding 28.36%. The favorite probability of 50.5% underscored how narrow Sweden's edge appeared before kickoff.

By the final whistle, Sweden's probability had exploded to 99.9%, while both Tunisia and the draw collapsed to 0.05% each. The home drift of 49.15 percentage points captured a market that moved from uncertainty to near-certainty. The away probability fell 20.84pp as Sweden's control became undeniable.

Sweden's home victory validated the market's directional call. Despite opening as a narrow favorite at 50.75%, the blended consensus correctly identified the winner in a match that saw one of the most dramatic probability swings. The tape captured 963 raw snapshots, downsampled for analysis, tracking the market's journey from doubt to dominance.