From 12.85% to 99.9%: Draw Demolishes Market Consensus

Markets opened with a decisive favorite: the away side commanded 81.05% probability, dwarfing the home team's 6.1% and the draw's 12.85%. Tagged as a "Tight Consensus" archetype, the setup reflected unified market opinion with the favorite probability sitting at 79.3%. Zero Polymarket volume ($0 recorded) suggests this fixture attracted minimal liquidity on the prediction market platform, though the consensus held firm across available pricing.

The match ended level, detonating the pre-match consensus. Draw probability rocketed from its 12.85% opening to 99.9% by the final whistle—a transformation captured in the drift data. The away side, dominant at 81.05% pre-kickoff, cratered to 0.05% at close. The home team's trajectory mirrored the collapse: from 6.1% to 0.05%. The raw drift figures quantify the reversal: home -0.0605, draw +0.8705, away -0.81. These numbers, drawn from 1,470 tape snapshots (downsampled from the raw feed), chart a complete market inversion.

The market's conviction in an away win proved costly. The market_correct: false flag confirms the miss, while the surprise index of 86 underscores how far reality diverged from the opening consensus. Markets priced the draw as the least likely outcome throughout the pre-match window, only for that 12.85% scenario to materialize on the pitch. With the favorite collapsing from 81.05% to 0.05%, this fixture stands as a textbook case of consensus failure—when unified market opinion meets an unexpected result.