Germany Dominance Sends Markets From 68.67% to 99.9% as Traders Pile In

Markets opened with Germany at 68.67%, the draw at 18.4%, and Ivory Coast at 12.93%. The favorite probability of 66.62% signaled a lopsided matchup from the start. Polymarket volume of $14,612,238.14 confirmed significant trader interest. The blended opening line showed unanimous sentiment: Germany was the overwhelming pick, with Ivory Coast barely cracking double digits.

From kickoff to final whistle, markets recorded 1,330 snapshots capturing the price action. Germany's probability climbed 31.23 percentage points to reach 99.9% at close. The draw collapsed by 18.35pp to 0.05%, while Ivory Coast fell 12.88pp to 0.05%. The archetype classification—Unanimous—held through the entire match. By the closing snapshot at 19:42:04 UTC, traders had priced Germany's victory as near-certain.

Germany won, validating the market's opening bias and live adjustments. The surprise index registered 33.4, reflecting the trajectory from heavy favorite to near-total certainty. Markets proved correct, with the closing 99.9% probability aligning with the actual home result. The 31.23pp drift demonstrates how live information—goals, possession, momentum—translates directly into probability updates as traders react in real time.