Dispatch
Machine-written reads, published in real time as markets moved. Not curated after the fact. Confidence ratings reflect the strength of the signal at the time of writing.
Archived dispatch — these reads are as published on the date shown.
Consensus drifted hard toward parity. Away fell from the high nineties to fifty percent, level with home and draw. The tape doesn't explain the move. All outcomes now equally priced.
Watch: Watch for any venue to diverge from parity as fresh odds arrive.
Markets repriced completely in the closing stretch — England fell from 99.5% to even money alongside France and draw. Kalshi shows 50-50-50. The tape offers no explanation for the shift.
Watch: Watch if the market reprices again post-full-time; thin overnight markets can swing sharply on minimal volume.
Kalshi reset mid-match to flatness; consensus followed. England support eased from the low seventies to fifty percent. Venues now split 49.9pp (Kalshi vs. ADI on France). No tape to show cause.
Watch: Whether Polymarket comes online and how quickly the 49.9pp venue gap closes before the final whistle.
England's drifted hard into the high-90s on consensus — Kalshi aligns — but Polymarket won't follow, sitting at just 2.3%. A 97-point split in a live game. No tape evidence for the move; market's responding to play.
Watch: Watch whether Polymarket closes the 97-point gap to Kalshi before final whistle.
Kalshi sharply raised England to 85.5%, a 28-point surge in one minute. Consensus drifted to the high sixties. Polymarket and ADI Predictstreet lag far behind, creating the evening's widest gap. The tape shows no cause.
Watch: Whether Polymarket and ADI converge toward Kalshi's 85.5% level or Kalshi's move moderates, the 55-point gap is untenable.
Consensus repriced sharply in-game: England fell from the low seventies to the low forties, draws and France rallied. Kalshi ticked draws higher. Venues diverge on England—Polymarket at 30%, ADI at 41%. Tape shows the movement but not the cause.
Watch: Watch whether England stabilizes above 40% or slides toward Polymarket's 30%.
England opened 94-95% by consensus but repriced sharply in-game over the past 16 minutes. Draw surged to 17.75%, France to 10.75%. ADI Predictstreet moved England +3pp. No clear cause in the tape.
Watch: Watch whether this repricing holds or if England stabilizes as the final whistle approaches.
The market just repriced heavily. England dropped from near-certainty to 72.75%, France surged to 10.75%, the draw to 16.75%. Something shifted in-game. All venues repriced together. The tape doesn't explain it.
Watch: Watch whether England stabilizes at 72-73% or drifts below 70%.
England's been moving steadily higher over the last 16 minutes — from the low nineties into the high ninties. The draw's compressed to near zero. Thin tape makes it hard to say if this is new information from the pitch or just match state. Watch the close.
Watch: Watch for any reversal if France creates a genuine chance; a goal would test how far the move holds.
Markets repriced England sharply in-game—the consensus jumped to 97 percent in the last two minutes. The draw cratered. Kalshi and Polymarket are now split massively. Tape shows movement but not cause.
Watch: Watch if England holds at 97 percent or reassesses toward the mid-nineties.
The consensus surged toward England — now at 97.3% — over the past 16 minutes. ADI Predictstreet led the move, but Polymarket stands apart at 7.5%, a 90-point divergence. The tape shows no cause for the swing.
Watch: Watch whether Polymarket catches up to consensus or if this spread is information.
England drifted sharply to 78% on the consensus in the first 42 minutes. Kalshi is the outlier, near 90%, while Polymarket sits notably lower at 17.5%. The tape shows the move but not the cause.
Watch: Watch if the consensus breaks 80% or if Polymarket re-prices toward Kalshi's level.
The consensus surges toward England at 66.25%, but venues split sharply: Polymarket at 18.5% lags ADI at 67% and Kalshi at 65.5%. The tape doesn't show why. Thin data.
Watch: Watch whether Polymarket reprices toward consensus or the 48.5pp spread persists.
England's jumped 22 points in-game. Kalshi moved sharply to 64.5%, but Polymarket still has England at 24.5% — a 40-point gap that's notable. The tape's empty on causation.
Watch: Watch if Polymarket moves higher toward Kalshi or if Kalshi itself reverses lower.
France dropped roughly twenty points in the opening minutes as England gained seventeen. The consensus now shows near parity. But Polymarket and ADI Predictstreet have split sharply on England — just over twenty-four percent versus forty. No tape yet explains the repricing.
Watch: Watch if the consensus on England holds above thirty-five percent through the next ten minutes.
Kalshi repriced sharply in-game: France fell 18 points, England rose 14. Other venues held. Polymarket still has France at 57.5% versus Kalshi's 39.5%. Consensus caught between them. Tape shows no cause.
Watch: Watch if Polymarket moves toward Kalshi's 39.5% level, or if the gap widens.
France goes in as the market's choice, but only by the slimmest of margins. The blended consensus sits just above 52%, with England and the draw splitting the remaining probability almost evenly between them. The biggest debate across venues is how much to back France at all: ADI Predictstreet prices them 3 points richer than BetMGM does, the widest gap in the market. There is no tape history to read. This is day-one data and no drift has been recorded. The market is settled, close, and quiet two hours out.
Watch: Whether the sportsbook cluster converges toward ADI Predictstreet's higher read on France, a move through 54% would be the first meaningful signal before kickoff.
Reads are generated by automated systems and presented without editorial review. They reflect data as recorded at the time of generation and are not gambling advice.