Scorecard

The accuracy record

Every settled event tracked against the consensus probability at closing. No cherry-picking — favourites who lost are here, the biggest misses are named, and the Brier score reflects the full record.

Last updated: August 2, 2026 · Source: 2026 FIFA World Cup, June 11 – July 19, 2026

Matches settled

100

complete record

Favourites record

65-35

65% win rate

Avg favourite prob

61%

at closing

3-way Brier score

0.477

lower is better

Biggest miss

Ecuador vs Curacao — the result that settled at 11% consensus probability. The lowest-probability outcome in the dataset.

Upsets (35 of 100)

England vs ArgentinaFav 34%✗

Egypt vs IR IranFav 37%✗

France vs SpainFav 37%✗

Ivory Coast vs EcuadorFav 38%✗

USA vs BelgiumFav 38%✗

Netherlands vs MoroccoFav 40%✗

Australia vs EgyptFav 40%✗

Spain vs ArgentinaFav 42%✗

Switzerland vs ColombiaFav 42%✗

Japan vs SwedenFav 45%✗

Netherlands vs JapanFav 47%✗

Turkiye vs ParaguayFav 47%✗

+ 23 more upsets in the full table below.

All 100 matches

Match	Fav prob	Result	Correct	Surprise
Mexico vs South AfricaJun 11	69%	Mexico	✓	31.4
South Korea vs Czech RepublicJun 12	36%	Korea	✓	63.7
Canada vs Bosnia and HerzegovinaJun 12	53%	Draw	✗	73.3
USA vs ParaguayJun 13	47%	USA	✓	52.9
Qatar vs SwitzerlandJun 13	79%	Draw	✗	86.0
Brazil vs MoroccoJun 13	58%	Draw	✗	75.0
Haiti vs ScotlandJun 14	62%	Scotland	✓	38.1
Australia vs TurkiyeJun 14	56%	Australia	✗	81.8
Germany vs CuracaoJun 14	93%	Germany	✓	7.0
Netherlands vs JapanJun 14	47%	Draw	✗	72.7
Ivory Coast vs EcuadorJun 14	38%	Coast	✗	71.1
Sweden vs TunisiaJun 15	51%	Sweden	✓	49.5
Belgium vs EgyptJun 15	61%	Draw	✗	76.4
Saudi Arabia vs UruguayJun 15	66%	Draw	✗	77.9
IR Iran vs New ZealandJun 16	51%	Draw	✗	72.3
France vs SenegalJun 16	65%	France	✓	35.0
Iraq vs NorwayJun 16	79%	Norway	✓	20.9
Argentina vs AlgeriaJun 17	63%	Argentina	✓	36.6
Austria vs JordanJun 17	69%	Austria	✓	31.1
Portugal vs Congo DRJun 17	76%	Draw	✗	83.2
England vs CroatiaJun 17	58%	England	✓	42.2
Ghana vs PanamaJun 17	40%	Ghana	✓	59.9
Uzbekistan vs ColombiaJun 18	75%	Colombia	✓	25.2
Czechia vs South AfricaJun 18	50%	Draw	✗	70.6
Switzerland vs Bosnia and HerzegovinaJun 18	62%	Switzerland	✓	38.2
Canada vs QatarJun 18	74%	Canada	✓	25.9
Mexico vs Korea RepublicJun 19	49%	Mexico	✓	51.5
USA vs AustraliaJun 19	62%	USA	✓	37.6
Scotland vs MoroccoJun 19	58%	Morocco	✓	42.3
Brazil vs HaitiJun 20	87%	Brazil	✓	12.7
Turkiye vs ParaguayJun 20	47%	Paraguay	✗	75.5
Netherlands vs SwedenJun 20	57%	Netherlands	✓	43.1
Germany vs Ivory CoastJun 20	67%	Germany	✓	33.4
Ecuador vs CuracaoJun 20	83%	Draw	✗	89.2
Tunisia vs JapanJun 21	69%	Japan	✓	31.4
Spain vs Saudi ArabiaJun 21	88%	Spain	✓	11.9
Belgium vs IR IranJun 21	68%	Draw	✗	80.1
New Zealand vs EgyptJun 22	59%	Egypt	✓	41.2
Argentina vs AustriaJun 22	68%	Argentina	✓	32.4
France vs IraqJun 22	90%	France	✓	9.6
Norway vs SenegalJun 23	43%	Norway	✓	57.2
Jordan vs AlgeriaJun 23	62%	Algeria	✓	37.9
Portugal vs UzbekistanJun 23	82%	Portugal	✓	18.5
England vs GhanaJun 23	79%	Draw	✗	85.5
Panama vs CroatiaJun 23	67%	Croatia	✓	32.7
Colombia vs Congo DRJun 24	63%	Colombia	✓	36.7
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs QatarJun 24	69%	Herzegovina	✓	31.4
Switzerland vs CanadaJun 24	37%	Switzerland	✓	62.7
Morocco vs HaitiJun 24	82%	Morocco	✓	17.5
Scotland vs BrazilJun 24	74%	Brazil	✓	25.7
South Africa vs Korea RepublicJun 25	61%	Africa	✗	84.3
Czechia vs MexicoJun 25	51%	Mexico	✓	48.8
Curacao vs Ivory CoastJun 25	81%	Coast	✓	19.4
Ecuador vs GermanyJun 25	55%	Ecuador	✗	76.5
Tunisia vs NetherlandsJun 25	87%	Netherlands	✓	12.7
Japan vs SwedenJun 25	45%	Draw	✗	72.5
Paraguay vs AustraliaJun 26	40%	Draw	✓	59.8
Turkiye vs USAJun 26	48%	Turkiye	✗	71.9
Norway vs FranceJun 26	74%	France	✓	26.5
Senegal vs IraqJun 26	79%	Senegal	✓	21.4
Uruguay vs SpainJun 27	57%	Spain	✓	43.1
New Zealand vs BelgiumJun 27	81%	Belgium	✓	18.7
Egypt vs IR IranJun 27	37%	Draw	✗	64.6
Panama vs EnglandJun 27	84%	England	✓	15.7
Croatia vs GhanaJun 27	54%	Croatia	✓	46.1
Colombia vs PortugalJun 27	52%	Draw	✗	76.5
Congo DR vs UzbekistanJun 27	58%	DR	✓	42.2
Jordan vs ArgentinaJun 28	85%	Argentina	✓	14.7
Algeria vs AustriaJun 28	47%	Draw	✓	53.0
Brazil vs JapanJun 29	54%	Brazil	✓	45.5
Germany vs ParaguayJun 29	73%	Draw	✗	81.4
Netherlands vs MoroccoJun 30	40%	Draw	✗	68.6
Ivory Coast vs NorwayJun 30	46%	Norway	✓	54.5
France vs SwedenJun 30	76%	France	✓	23.5
Mexico vs EcuadorJul 1	42%	Mexico	✓	57.8
England vs Congo DRJul 1	75%	England	✓	24.5
Belgium vs SenegalJul 1	50%	Draw	✗	71.8
USA vs Bosnia and HerzegovinaJul 2	72%	USA	✓	28.4
Spain vs AustriaJul 2	75%	Spain	✓	25.2
Portugal vs CroatiaJul 2	58%	Portugal	✓	42.2
Switzerland vs AlgeriaJul 3	48%	Switzerland	✓	51.6
Australia vs EgyptJul 3	40%	Draw	✗	66.7
Argentina vs Cape VerdeJul 3	85%	Draw	✗	89.2
Colombia vs GhanaJul 4	68%	Colombia	✓	32.2
Canada vs MoroccoJul 4	53%	Morocco	✓	46.5
Paraguay vs FranceJul 4	81%	France	✓	18.8
Brazil vs NorwayJul 5	54%	Norway	✗	80.4
Mexico vs EnglandJul 6	37%	England	✓	62.8
Portugal vs SpainJul 6	50%	Spain	✓	50.0
USA vs BelgiumJul 6	38%	Belgium	✗	66.1
Argentina vs EgyptJul 7	73%	Argentina	✓	27.5
Switzerland vs ColombiaJul 7	42%	Draw	✗	68.6
France vs MoroccoJul 9	61%	France	✓	39.2
Spain vs BelgiumJul 10	59%	Spain	✓	40.8
Norway vs EnglandJul 11	53%	Draw	✗	75.5
Argentina vs SwitzerlandJul 12	56%	Draw	✗	72.0
France vs SpainJul 14	37%	Spain	✗	69.0
England vs ArgentinaJul 15	34%	Argentina	✗	68.6
France vs EnglandJul 18	56%	England	✗	78.6
Spain vs ArgentinaJul 19	42%	Draw	✗	68.0

Surprise index: 100 × (1 − prob of actual result at closing). Higher = more surprising.

Full World Cup archive

This scorecard covers the 2026 World Cup — 100 matches, 39 days of tracking. The full archive, including per-match market narratives and replay analysis, is at /world-cup.

This scorecard is for informational purposes only. It is not gambling advice.