Morocco Wins as Probability Slides from 82.09% to 77.61%

Markets opened Morocco at 82.09%, Haiti at 5.47%, and the draw at 12.44%. The favorite reached a peak probability of 82.46% during the match window. The Quiet Edge classification signaled a heavy favorite with limited competitive drama expected. Morocco entered as the overwhelming consensus pick.

Morocco's probability declined 0.0448 to settle at 77.61% at close. The draw rose 0.0249 to reach 14.93%, while Haiti climbed 0.0199 to finish at 7.46%. The drift reflects in-match action that reduced confidence in the favorite, though Morocco remained comfortably ahead in market pricing from kickoff to final whistle.

The away leg registered its largest swing of 0.5, with Haiti moving from 5.47% to 5.94% in a window beginning at 20:53:06 UTC. Morocco fell from 82.09% to 81.69% (swing: 0.4) during the same sequence, while the draw shifted from 12.44% to 12.38% (swing: 0.1). This captured the most concentrated pricing adjustment.

Morocco won, delivering on market expectations. The surprise index settled at 17.5—indicating low shock value relative to pre-match pricing. Markets processed 19 snapshots through the match. Despite the modest probability drift, the core pricing thesis held: Morocco as dominant favorite. Markets called this fixture correctly.