Pre-Match Consensus
At the opening snapshot (14 Jun), the blended Polymarket + Kalshi consensus priced Ivory Coast at 28.8%, Ecuador at 37.8%, with the draw at 33.3%. Tater tagged the pre-match shape as Unanimous. Prediction-market volume on the match reached $2,843,677.
Drift Through Close
Between 14 Jun and the final snapshot (14 Jun), Ivory Coast moved +71.0pp to 99.9%, Ecuador moved -37.8pp to 0.1%, and the draw moved -33.3pp to 0.1%.
The Result
The match ended Ivory Coast. Ecuador closed as the favorite at 38.1%, giving a surprise index of 71.1 (100 − favorite probability). The market was wrong: the settled outcome did not match the favored side.
How this replay was built
This replay is reconstructed from Tater's 1-second capture tape (787 samples) — blended Polymarket + Kalshi consensus polled every second through the match. Every number on this page comes straight from that tape and the settled result; nothing is interpolated or invented.
| Game | Favorite (close) | Result | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ivory Coast vs Ecuador | Ecuador 38.1% | Ivory Coast | ✗ surprise (index 71.1) |
Compliance
Markets and odds shown are for informational purposes only. This is not gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.
Data note
Data: Polymarket + Kalshi blended consensus at 1-second resolution; sportsbook context de-vigged across 9 books. Full methodology: taterit.com/research. Broadcast-format version with caster handoffs available in the partner library.
About Tater
Tater is the discovery and comparison layer for prediction markets and sportsbooks. We aggregate real-time prices across 16 platforms, surface cross-platform edges, and help users find the best lines without holding accounts everywhere. Learn more at taterit.com.
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Related
Tater Market Replay · data: Polymarket + Kalshi blended consensus at 1-second resolution; sportsbook context de-vigged across 9 books.