Ghana surges from narrow favorite to near-certainty as markets swing 60 points

Markets opened with Ghana as a slim favorite at 40%, barely ahead of the 30.5% draw and 29.5% Panama win scenarios. The favorite probability of 40.09% signaled genuine uncertainty across all three outcomes, with no clear consensus on which nation would advance.

Ghana's probability climbed 59.9 percentage points through the match, reaching 99.9% by the final snapshot. The draw probability collapsed from 30.5% to 0.05%, while Panama's win chances fell from 29.5% to 0.05%. This unanimous market verdict—reflected in the "Unanimous" archetype classification—showed traders converging on a single outcome as events unfolded.

Ghana's victory confirmed the market's directional call. Despite opening as only a 40% favorite, the market proved correct in identifying Ghana as the more likely winner. Polymarket volume reached $4,916,684.83 across 990 recorded price updates, demonstrating sustained trader engagement throughout the match. The 59.9 surprise index reflects how dramatically market confidence shifted from the opening line to the final result.