England Crushes Croatia as Market Surges 42.69pp to Near-Certainty

Markets priced England at 57.21% at kickoff, with Croatia at 17.41% and the draw at 25.37%. The 69.2% favorite probability signaled a lean toward England, but the spread left room for doubt—42.78% of implied probability sat outside an England win. Croatia entered as a live underdog, not a token opponent.

England's win probability climbed 42.69pp through the match, closing at 99.9%. The draw collapsed 25.32pp to 0.05%, while Croatia's chances evaporated 17.36pp to the same floor. With 1,287 raw data points captured, the tape shows a grinding, methodical march to certainty—no dramatic swings, just steady accumulation of dominance.

England won, validating the pre-match favorite call. The surprise index of 30.8 reflects the magnitude of the in-game shift, not the outcome itself. Volume of $26,370,739.01 signals deep liquidity and conviction. The market's opening lean proved correct; the only question was how decisively England would deliver.