Curacao at 0.05%: Ivory Coast Closes at 99.9% as the Market Leaves Nothing on the Table

The blended market opened with Ivory Coast priced at 82.31%, Curacao at 6.15%, and the draw at 11.54%. A pre-match favourite probability of 66.67% anchored the directional consensus before kick-off, with $6,493,163.98 in Polymarket volume providing the liquidity backbone. The archetype is Single Source — meaning the blended line drew from one feed — which keeps the opening picture clean but concentrates pricing power in a single signal. From the first tick, markets said this was Ivory Coast's match to lose.

The tape logged 1,498 price points across the match before downsampling. The sharpest 60-second window the data surfaces — beginning at 18:48 UTC — shows a 0pp swing on the home leg (locked at 6.15%), a near-zero drift on draw (0.1154 → 0.1158), and a marginal dip on the away leg (0.8231 → 0.8227). That flat profile is not inactivity — it is conviction. When a market holds its line through the middle of a live fixture and refuses to respond to new information, the tape is saying the outcome was already priced.

By the final snapshot, Ivory Coast sat at 99.9%. Curacao and the draw each collapsed to 0.05% — rounding-error territory. The drift from open to close reads: away +17.59pp, draw −11.49pp, home −6.10pp. None of that movement was a single sharp lurch; the biggest 60-second swing on any leg registered 0pp. This was a slow, grinding convergence. A surprise index of 33.3 confirms the market earned its final price — the result was favoured, but the path was not frictionless.

Result: away. The market had Ivory Coast as favourite at 66.67% pre-match and finished at 99.9% — market_correct: true. The surprise index of 33.3 is the honest caveat: even a correctly-called favourite carries uncertainty in transit, and a non-trivial chunk of the pre-match probability mass sat outside the winning outcome. The $6,493,163.98 Polymarket pool provided enough depth for the single-source blended line to price with confidence from first whistle to last. Ivory Coast's +17.59pp drift is the clean arithmetic of a market processing information steadily, not reacting in panic.