Canada Surges 25 Points to 99.9% as Home Win Materializes

The blended market opened with Canada priced at 74.63%, establishing the home side as a heavy favorite against Qatar's 8.46%. A draw sat at 16.92%, but the probability mass concentrated on a Canada win. The matchup earned a "Tight Consensus" designation, with Canada's favorite probability at 74.11%. Polymarket recorded $2.55 million in volume by match end. The opening spread told a clear story: markets expected a dominant home performance, pricing Qatar's chances below one in ten.

Canada's probability climbed 25.27 percentage points from open to close, finishing at 99.9%. The draw collapsed 16.87 points to just 0.05%, while Qatar's already-slim chances fell 8.41 points to the same near-zero level. The market processed 648 price snapshots through the match, with downsampled tape data capturing the directional shift. What began as "heavy favorite" territory evolved into effective certainty, with both non-Canada outcomes priced at statistical zero by the final whistle. The drift magnitude—a quarter of the full probability spectrum—reflected a thorough repricing.

The market's call proved correct—Canada won. With $2.55 million in Polymarket volume and a surprise index of 25.9, the result aligned with consensus expectations. The 74.63% opening probability and 99.9% closing probability bracketed a unidirectional shift toward the home side. The "Tight Consensus" archetype held: no major probability reversals, just increasing conviction in the pre-match favorite. The 648-point tape documented the repricing from confident favorite to near-certainty, capturing a match where the market's directional read was validated from opening bell to final whistle.