Brazil Favorite Flips to 99.9% Draw: Markets Miss on 75-Point Surprise

Markets opened with Brazil heavily favored at 57.92%, nearly triple Morocco's 16.83% chance. The draw sat at 25.25%, a clear but distant third outcome. This consensus reflected a unanimous archetype—no liquidity registered on Polymarket, suggesting thin coverage for this fixture. The favorite probability settled at 57.65%, signaling moderate but not overwhelming confidence in Brazil's advantage.

By close, the draw had surged to 99.9%, gaining 74.65 percentage points—the defining movement of the match. Brazil collapsed from 57.92% to 0.05%, a drop of 57.87pp. Morocco fell similarly, losing 16.78pp to land at 0.05%. The tape recorded 1,312 raw data points before downsampling, capturing the full arc of this dramatic shift as the match settled into a stalemate.

The surprise index registered 75, marking this as a major deviation from pre-match expectations. Markets had priced Brazil as the clear favorite, but the result delivered the draw they had discounted. With market_correct flagged false, this match stands as a sharp reminder that even unanimous consensus can misjudge on-field dynamics. The collapse of both win probabilities to near-zero reflects the finality of the drawn result.