Bosnia's Route to Victory: Market Confidence Surges 28.75pp as Favorite Delivers

Markets opened with Bosnia and Herzegovina priced at 71.15% to defeat Qatar, leaving the draw at 17.4% and an away win at just 11.44%. The Unanimous archetype confirmed cross-platform alignment: every source saw the same favorite. With Bosnia carrying an 80.08% implied probability as the consensus favorite, the pre-match pricing left little room for doubt about the expected outcome.

From kickoff to final whistle, the market moved decisively in one direction. Bosnia's win probability climbed 28.75 percentage points, closing at 99.9% as the match reached its conclusion. The draw collapsed 17.35pp to 0.05%, while Qatar's chances fell 11.39pp to the same 0.05% floor. With 1574 tape snapshots capturing the journey, the market processed each development in real-time, converging on near-certainty well before the final whistle.

Polymarket traders committed $8,840,630.36 across this fixture, staking millions on a market that opened heavily skewed and only grew more lopsided. The low surprise index of 19.9 reflects a textbook favorite-delivers outcome: the pre-match consensus priced Bosnia to win, and Bosnia won. Markets processed the match efficiently, rewarding those who backed the favorite and leaving contrarian Qatar backers with minimal outs as the probability drifted toward 100%.