Argentina Dominance Drives 34pp Market Swing to Near-Certainty

Markets opened Argentina at 65.49% to defeat Algeria, with the draw priced at 22.33% and an away win at just 12.18%. The favorite probability of 64.47% signaled a clear but not overwhelming edge for the South American side. This single-source market drew $24.5 million in trading volume across 892 price snapshots, indicating sustained liquidity through the match window.

Argentina's probability climbed 34.41 percentage points from open to close, finishing at 99.9% as the result became certain. The draw probability collapsed 22.28pp to 0.05%, while Algeria's chances fell 12.13pp to 0.05%. The market moved decisively in one direction, reflecting on-field control that left little room for doubt by the final whistle.

The market correctly priced Argentina as the winner, validating the 65.49% opening line. The surprise index of 35.5 captures the magnitude of the probability shift rather than an upset—the favorite won, but the margin of victory drove the large drift. Markets demonstrated conviction in real-time, compressing uncertainty from a three-outcome spread to near-total certainty on the home result.