The number of the day
66.5%
USA — the lead market read
Blended market read: USA 66.5%, draw 22.5%, Bosnia and Herzegovina 11.0% — Quiet Edge (2.64pp cross-platform spread).
The slate at a glance
LIVE consensus = current blended price from Polymarket, Kalshi, and the de-vigged 9-book consensus. Δ = movement on the home-team leg vs the baseline recorded at snapshot time. Archetypes per the Tater six-archetype methodology (see footer).
| Game | Kickoff (ET) | LIVE consensus | Δ since Jun 10 open | Story |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA vs Bosnia and HerzegovinaView live market → | Wed 8:00 PM ET | 35.5% / draw 30.6% / 33.9% | — | Single Source |
| Spain vs AustriaView live market → | Thu 3:00 PM ET | 73.6% / draw 17.8% / 8.6% | — | Tight Consensus |
| Portugal vs CroatiaView live market → | Thu 7:00 PM ET | 55.1% / draw 26.3% / 18.6% | — | Unanimous |
LINES table New from Edition #3
Tracks the consensus handicap spread and totals lines across sportsbooks each edition — including the most-balanced line (nearest 50% over/under), its current price, and drift vs the prior edition. A permanent standing feature of Tater WC Daily.
| Game | Spread | Cover % | Drift vs prev | Best total | Over % | Drift vs prev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0.0 | 54.1% | 2.75 | 50.0% | ||
| Spain vs Austria | -1.5 | 50.7% | 2.75 | 52.2% | ||
| Portugal vs Croatia | -0.75 | 51.3% | 2.75 | 50.5% |
Cover % = book-average implied probability for the favorite covering the spread. Over % = implied probability for over at the most-balanced total line. Drift = change vs prior edition tracked values.
Snapshot 2026-07-02T09:31Z. The slate table and live board carry current prices; the narrative reflects this snapshot.
Game by game
Blended market read: USA 66.5%, draw 22.5%, Bosnia and Herzegovina 11.0% — Quiet Edge (2.64pp cross-platform spread).
Blended market read: Spain 73.3%, draw 17.8%, Austria 8.9% — Quiet Edge (2.38pp cross-platform spread).
Market favorites have held in 52 of 69 settled games (75%). Biggest shock so far: Qatar vs Switzerland — draw won against a 79.3% favorite (surprise index 86). On the 17 upset(s), the de-vigged books put the most weight on the actual result 11 time(s) — the case for reading every source, not one.
Methodology footnote
Six archetypes from the Tater playbook: Unanimous (<1pp platform spread), Tight Consensus (1–2pp), Quiet Edge (2–4pp), Camp Split (PMs and books disagree as groups), Lone Voice / Lone Hawk (one platform/book against the field). Sportsbook probabilities are de-vigged (proportional 3-way normalization). Prediction-market prices are traded order-book prices, treated as vig-free.
Compliance
Markets and odds shown are for informational purposes only. This is not gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.
About Tater
Tater is the discovery and comparison layer for prediction markets and sportsbooks. We aggregate real-time prices across 16 platforms, surface cross-platform edges, and help users find the best lines without holding accounts everywhere. Learn more at taterit.com.
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Tater World Cup Daily is produced by Tater (taterit.com) — prediction-market and sportsbook intelligence. Edition #22 of daily coverage running through the Final.