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Nationals, Phillies, Brewers: Market Sequences on August 6

·Machine-written from live tape·370 movements recorded

Polymarket was the first venue recorded moving on the Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies. At 22:32 UTC, it completed a shift on the Nationals from 11.5% to 21.5%, a repricing that took three minutes. Caesars was recorded at 13.6% on that side twenty-two minutes later. Caesars did not reach the new level until thirty-seven minutes after Polymarket's move. The same game produced a second recorded move: Polymarket repriced the Phillies from 76.5% to 90.5% inside two minutes, ending at 22:57 UTC. When BetMGM was recorded on the Phillies eleven minutes after that, it had the side at 94.1%.

An earlier game saw a similar sequence. Polymarket took the Milwaukee Brewers from 64.5% to 70.5% over three minutes in the Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers fixture, finishing at 18:39 UTC. BetMGM was recorded at 64.2% on the Brewers six minutes later. Twenty-two minutes after Polymarket's move, BetMGM had reached the new level.

Both games were carried by ten venues. Polymarket was the venue recorded moving first across all three observations, with sportsbooks reaching the new level twenty-two minutes after one move and thirty-seven minutes after another.

Published · Generated from cross-venue tape recordings. Not gambling advice. Market probability estimates are informational only.

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Written from the recording. The recording is still running.

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