Belgium-Egypt Draw Defied 62.38% Favorite Opening

Markets opened Belgium at 62.38%, Egypt at 14.36%, and the draw at 23.27%. By the close, the draw had surged to 99.9% as both teams finished level. Belgium's probability collapsed from 62.38% to 0.05%, while Egypt fell from 14.36% to 0.05%. Tagged as Tight Consensus before kickoff, the match delivered a surprise index of 76.4—quantifying how far the opening consensus missed the final outcome.

The draw outcome—initially priced at 23.27%—became reality. Draw probability climbed through the match, finishing at 99.9% when the result was confirmed. The drift figure of 0.7663 captures the magnitude of the reversal from open to close. Prediction markets recorded $894,318 in volume across the match, with traders backing the draw from the open capturing the full probability swing as the scoreline held.

Belgium entered as the favorite at 60.72% implied probability, but the match unfolded differently. The 1,053 market snapshots captured throughout the contest trace the home side's probability eroding from the opening 62.38% to a final 0.05% as the draw scenario took hold. The market converged on 99.9% for the draw at the close, confirming the outcome markets had initially priced as unlikely.