The number of the day
81.8%
England — the lead market read
Blended market read: Panama 6.6%, draw 11.6%, England 81.8% — Quiet Edge (2.51pp cross-platform spread).
The slate at a glance
LIVE consensus = current blended price from Polymarket, Kalshi, and the de-vigged 9-book consensus. Δ = movement on the home-team leg vs the baseline recorded at snapshot time. Archetypes per the Tater six-archetype methodology (see footer).
| Game | Kickoff (ET) | LIVE consensus | Δ since Jun 10 open | Story |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt vs IR IranView live market → | Fri 11:00 PM ET | 25.3% / draw 57.9% / 16.8% | — | Camp Split |
| New Zealand vs BelgiumView live market → | Fri 11:00 PM ET | 0.7% / draw 1.4% / 97.9% | — | Tight Consensus |
| Uruguay vs SpainView live market → | Fri 8:00 PM ET | 16.7% / draw 16.7% / 66.7% | — | Single Source |
| Congo DR vs UzbekistanView live market → | Sat 7:30 PM ET | 56.4% / draw 23.1% / 20.5% | — | Tight Consensus |
| Colombia vs PortugalView live market → | Sat 7:30 PM ET | 24.8% / draw 24.0% / 51.1% | — | Tight Consensus |
| Croatia vs GhanaView live market → | Sat 5:00 PM ET | 53.6% / draw 29.6% / 16.8% | — | Tight Consensus |
| Panama vs EnglandView live market → | Sat 5:00 PM ET | 6.2% / draw 11.5% / 82.3% | — | Tight Consensus |
LINES table New from Edition #3
Tracks the consensus handicap spread and totals lines across sportsbooks each edition — including the most-balanced line (nearest 50% over/under), its current price, and drift vs the prior edition. A permanent standing feature of Tater WC Daily.
| Game | Spread | Cover % | Drift vs prev | Best total | Over % | Drift vs prev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egypt vs IR Iran | 0.0 | 60.9% | 2.5 | 46.3% | ||
| New Zealand vs Belgium | 1.0 | 47.6% | 3.75 | 51.7% | ||
| Uruguay vs Spain | — | — | — | — | ||
| Congo DR vs Uzbekistan | -0.75 | 51.5% | 2.5 | 50.3% | ||
| Colombia vs Portugal | 0.5 | 51.8% | 2.5 | 53.5% | ||
| Croatia vs Ghana | -0.75 | 48.4% | 2.25 | 49.0% | ||
| Panama vs England | 2.0 | 50.0% | 3.25 | 51.5% |
Cover % = book-average implied probability for the favorite covering the spread. Over % = implied probability for over at the most-balanced total line. Drift = change vs prior edition tracked values.
Snapshot 2026-06-27T04:31Z. The slate table and live board carry current prices; the narrative reflects this snapshot.
Game by game
Blended market read: Panama 6.6%, draw 11.6%, England 81.8% — Quiet Edge (2.51pp cross-platform spread).
Blended market read: Egypt 36.2%, draw 36.2%, IR Iran 27.6% — Unanimous (0.28pp cross-platform spread).
Blended market read: New Zealand 7.2%, draw 11.8%, Belgium 81.1% — Quiet Edge (2.1pp cross-platform spread).
Blended market read: Uruguay 16.7%, draw 30.3%, Spain 53.0% — Tight Consensus (1.65pp cross-platform spread).
Blended market read: Congo DR 55.3%, draw 23.6%, Uzbekistan 21.1% — Unanimous (0.85pp cross-platform spread).
Blended market read: Colombia 24.7%, draw 24.4%, Portugal 50.9% — Tight Consensus (1.51pp cross-platform spread).
Blended market read: Croatia 53.7%, draw 29.5%, Ghana 16.8% — Tight Consensus (1.24pp cross-platform spread).
Market favorites have held in 45 of 60 settled games (75%). Biggest shock so far: Qatar vs Switzerland — draw won against a 79.3% favorite (surprise index 86). On the 15 upset(s), the de-vigged books put the most weight on the actual result 9 time(s) — the case for reading every source, not one.
Methodology footnote
Six archetypes from the Tater playbook: Unanimous (<1pp platform spread), Tight Consensus (1–2pp), Quiet Edge (2–4pp), Camp Split (PMs and books disagree as groups), Lone Voice / Lone Hawk (one platform/book against the field). Sportsbook probabilities are de-vigged (proportional 3-way normalization). Prediction-market prices are traded order-book prices, treated as vig-free.
Compliance
Markets and odds shown are for informational purposes only. This is not gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.
About Tater
Tater is the discovery and comparison layer for prediction markets and sportsbooks. We aggregate real-time prices across 16 platforms, surface cross-platform edges, and help users find the best lines without holding accounts everywhere. Learn more at taterit.com.
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Tater World Cup Daily is produced by Tater (taterit.com) — prediction-market and sportsbook intelligence. Edition #17 of daily coverage running through the Final.