The number of the day
78.5%
Senegal — the lead market read
Blended market read: Senegal 78.5%, draw 13.9%, Iraq 7.6% — Tight Consensus (1.6pp cross-platform spread).
The slate at a glance
LIVE consensus = current blended price from Polymarket, Kalshi, and the de-vigged 9-book consensus. Δ = movement on the home-team leg vs the baseline recorded at snapshot time. Archetypes per the Tater six-archetype methodology (see footer).
| Game | Kickoff (ET) | LIVE consensus | Δ since Jun 10 open | Story |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paraguay vs AustraliaView live market → | Thu 10:00 PM ET | 16.7% / draw 66.7% / 16.7% | — | Single Source |
| Turkiye vs USAView live market → | Thu 10:00 PM ET | 66.7% / draw 16.7% / 16.7% | — | Single Source |
| Norway vs FranceView live market → | Fri 3:00 PM ET | 16.7% / draw 16.7% / 66.7% | — | Single Source |
| Senegal vs IraqView live market → | Fri 3:00 PM ET | 66.7% / draw 16.7% / 16.7% | — | Single Source |
LINES table New from Edition #3
Tracks the consensus handicap spread and totals lines across sportsbooks each edition — including the most-balanced line (nearest 50% over/under), its current price, and drift vs the prior edition. A permanent standing feature of Tater WC Daily.
| Game | Spread | Cover % | Drift vs prev | Best total | Over % | Drift vs prev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paraguay vs Australia | — | — | — | — | ||
| Turkiye vs USA | — | — | — | — | ||
| Norway vs France | — | — | — | — | ||
| Senegal vs Iraq | — | — | — | — |
Cover % = book-average implied probability for the favorite covering the spread. Over % = implied probability for over at the most-balanced total line. Drift = change vs prior edition tracked values.
Snapshot 2026-06-26T23:30Z. The slate table and live board carry current prices; the narrative reflects this snapshot.
Game by game
Blended market read: Senegal 78.5%, draw 13.9%, Iraq 7.6% — Tight Consensus (1.6pp cross-platform spread).
Blended market read: Paraguay 36.2%, draw 42.1%, Australia 21.8% — Unanimous (0.7pp cross-platform spread).
Blended market read: Turkiye 24.2%, draw 21.7%, USA 54.0% — Tight Consensus (1.44pp cross-platform spread).
Blended market read: Norway 18.9%, draw 20.9%, France 60.3% — Tight Consensus (1.57pp cross-platform spread).
Market favorites have held in 42 of 56 settled games (75%). Biggest shock so far: Qatar vs Switzerland — draw won against a 79.3% favorite (surprise index 86). On the 14 upset(s), the de-vigged books put the most weight on the actual result 8 time(s) — the case for reading every source, not one.
Methodology footnote
Six archetypes from the Tater playbook: Unanimous (<1pp platform spread), Tight Consensus (1–2pp), Quiet Edge (2–4pp), Camp Split (PMs and books disagree as groups), Lone Voice / Lone Hawk (one platform/book against the field). Sportsbook probabilities are de-vigged (proportional 3-way normalization). Prediction-market prices are traded order-book prices, treated as vig-free.
Compliance
Markets and odds shown are for informational purposes only. This is not gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.
About Tater
Tater is the discovery and comparison layer for prediction markets and sportsbooks. We aggregate real-time prices across 16 platforms, surface cross-platform edges, and help users find the best lines without holding accounts everywhere. Learn more at taterit.com.
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Tater World Cup Daily is produced by Tater (taterit.com) — prediction-market and sportsbook intelligence. Edition #16 of daily coverage running through the Final.