The number of the day
82.1%
Morocco — the lead market read
Blended market read: Morocco 82.1%, draw 12.9%, Haiti 5.0% — Quiet Edge (2.56pp cross-platform spread).
The slate at a glance
LIVE consensus = current blended price from Polymarket, Kalshi, and the de-vigged 9-book consensus. Δ = movement on the home-team leg vs the baseline recorded at snapshot time. Archetypes per the Tater six-archetype methodology (see footer).
| Game | Kickoff (ET) | LIVE consensus | Δ since Jun 10 open | Story |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia vs Congo DRView live market → | Tue 10:00 PM ET | 52.3% / draw 19.7% / 28.0% | — | Single Source |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina vs QatarView live market → | Wed 3:00 PM ET | 80.1% / draw 16.2% / 3.7% | — | Unanimous |
| Morocco vs HaitiView live market → | Wed 6:00 PM ET | 82.5% / draw 12.3% / 5.2% | — | Quiet Edge |
| Scotland vs BrazilView live market → | Wed 6:00 PM ET | 8.7% / draw 17.0% / 74.3% | — | Tight Consensus |
| Switzerland vs CanadaView live market → | Wed 3:00 PM ET | 94.4% / draw 4.6% / 1.0% | — | Quiet Edge |
LINES table New from Edition #3
Tracks the consensus handicap spread and totals lines across sportsbooks each edition — including the most-balanced line (nearest 50% over/under), its current price, and drift vs the prior edition. A permanent standing feature of Tater WC Daily.
| Game | Spread | Cover % | Drift vs prev | Best total | Over % | Drift vs prev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colombia vs Congo DR | 0.5 | 50.0% | 2.5 | 49.4% | ||
| Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Qatar | -0.25 | 50.0% | 4.0 | 53.9% | ||
| Morocco vs Haiti | -2.0 | 53.5% | 3.0 | 53.8% | ||
| Scotland vs Brazil | 1.5 | 51.2% | 2.75 | 49.0% | ||
| Switzerland vs Canada | 0.0 | 49.3% | 2.75 | 51.2% |
Cover % = book-average implied probability for the favorite covering the spread. Over % = implied probability for over at the most-balanced total line. Drift = change vs prior edition tracked values.
Snapshot 2026-06-24T20:30Z. The slate table and live board carry current prices; the narrative reflects this snapshot.
Game by game
Blended market read: Morocco 82.1%, draw 12.9%, Haiti 5.0% — Quiet Edge (2.56pp cross-platform spread).
Blended market read: Colombia 62.6%, draw 23.7%, Congo DR 13.7% — Tight Consensus (1.23pp cross-platform spread).
Blended market read: Bosnia and Herzegovina 68.8%, draw 18.3%, Qatar 12.9% — Quiet Edge (2.35pp cross-platform spread).
Blended market read: Scotland 11.0%, draw 18.2%, Brazil 70.8% — Quiet Edge (2.44pp cross-platform spread).
Blended market read: Switzerland 41.2%, draw 31.1%, Canada 27.7% — Unanimous (0.38pp cross-platform spread).
Market favorites have held in 33 of 46 settled games (72%). Biggest shock so far: Qatar vs Switzerland — draw won against a 79.3% favorite (surprise index 86). On the 13 upset(s), the de-vigged books put the most weight on the actual result 7 time(s) — the case for reading every source, not one.
Methodology footnote
Six archetypes from the Tater playbook: Unanimous (<1pp platform spread), Tight Consensus (1–2pp), Quiet Edge (2–4pp), Camp Split (PMs and books disagree as groups), Lone Voice / Lone Hawk (one platform/book against the field). Sportsbook probabilities are de-vigged (proportional 3-way normalization). Prediction-market prices are traded order-book prices, treated as vig-free.
Compliance
Markets and odds shown are for informational purposes only. This is not gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.
About Tater
Tater is the discovery and comparison layer for prediction markets and sportsbooks. We aggregate real-time prices across 16 platforms, surface cross-platform edges, and help users find the best lines without holding accounts everywhere. Learn more at taterit.com.
Tater — private beta
Get the next edition in your inbox
Daily World Cup market intelligence — free, one email per match day.
Sign up — get tomorrow's board →Subscribe to Tater Research
Get future publications in your inbox. No spam.
Tater World Cup Daily is produced by Tater (taterit.com) — prediction-market and sportsbook intelligence. Edition #14 of daily coverage running through the Final.