The number of the day
63.8%
Croatia — the lead market read
Blended market read: Jordan 14.6%, draw 22.5%, Algeria 62.9% — Unanimous (0.71pp cross-platform spread).
The slate at a glance
LIVE consensus = current blended price from Polymarket, Kalshi, and the de-vigged 9-book consensus. Δ = movement on the home-team leg vs the baseline recorded at snapshot time. Archetypes per the Tater six-archetype methodology (see footer).
| Game | Kickoff (ET) | LIVE consensus | Δ since Jun 10 open | Story |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan vs AlgeriaView live market → | Mon 11:00 PM ET | 13.7% / draw 15.8% / 70.5% | — | Single Source |
| Norway vs SenegalView live market → | Mon 8:00 PM ET | 51.4% / draw 19.0% / 29.6% | — | Single Source |
| England vs GhanaView live market → | Tue 4:00 PM ET | 79.8% / draw 13.7% / 6.5% | — | Tight Consensus |
| Panama vs CroatiaView live market → | Tue 7:00 PM ET | 12.9% / draw 22.7% / 64.4% | — | Tight Consensus |
| Portugal vs UzbekistanView live market → | Tue 1:00 PM ET | 83.3% / draw 11.6% / 5.1% | — | Tight Consensus |
LINES table New from Edition #3
Tracks the consensus handicap spread and totals lines across sportsbooks each edition — including the most-balanced line (nearest 50% over/under), its current price, and drift vs the prior edition. A permanent standing feature of Tater WC Daily.
| Game | Spread | Cover % | Drift vs prev | Best total | Over % | Drift vs prev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan vs Algeria | 1.75 | 51.0% | 3.0 | 50.2% | ||
| Norway vs Senegal | 0.75 | 51.5% | 2.75 | 54.8% | ||
| England vs Ghana | -2.0 | 48.9% | 3.0 | 49.5% | ||
| Panama vs Croatia | 1.0 | 48.3% | 2.75 | 51.5% | ||
| Portugal vs Uzbekistan | -2.25 | 49.0% | 3.25 | 49.3% |
Cover % = book-average implied probability for the favorite covering the spread. Over % = implied probability for over at the most-balanced total line. Drift = change vs prior edition tracked values.
Snapshot 2026-06-23T05:30Z. The slate table and live board carry current prices; the narrative reflects this snapshot.
Game by game
Blended market read: Jordan 14.6%, draw 22.5%, Algeria 62.9% — Unanimous (0.71pp cross-platform spread).
Blended market read: Norway 35.1%, draw 30.9%, Senegal 34.0% — Tight Consensus (1.36pp cross-platform spread).
Blended market read: England 79.7%, draw 13.8%, Ghana 6.5% — Tight Consensus (1.25pp cross-platform spread).
Blended market read: Panama 13.3%, draw 22.9%, Croatia 63.8% — Tight Consensus (1.64pp cross-platform spread).
Blended market read: Portugal 82.1%, draw 12.6%, Uzbekistan 5.3% — Tight Consensus (1.61pp cross-platform spread).
Market favorites have held in 29 of 41 settled games (71%). Biggest shock so far: Qatar vs Switzerland — draw won against a 79.3% favorite (surprise index 86). On the 12 upset(s), the de-vigged books put the most weight on the actual result 6 time(s) — the case for reading every source, not one.
Methodology footnote
Six archetypes from the Tater playbook: Unanimous (<1pp platform spread), Tight Consensus (1–2pp), Quiet Edge (2–4pp), Camp Split (PMs and books disagree as groups), Lone Voice / Lone Hawk (one platform/book against the field). Sportsbook probabilities are de-vigged (proportional 3-way normalization). Prediction-market prices are traded order-book prices, treated as vig-free.
Compliance
Markets and odds shown are for informational purposes only. This is not gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.
About Tater
Tater is the discovery and comparison layer for prediction markets and sportsbooks. We aggregate real-time prices across 16 platforms, surface cross-platform edges, and help users find the best lines without holding accounts everywhere. Learn more at taterit.com.
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Tater World Cup Daily is produced by Tater (taterit.com) — prediction-market and sportsbook intelligence. Edition #13 of daily coverage running through the Final.