The number of the day
56.0%
Netherlands — the lead market read
Blended market read: Brazil 87.0%, draw 8.1%, Haiti 4.9% — Tight Consensus (1.48pp cross-platform spread).
The slate at a glance
LIVE consensus = current blended price from Polymarket, Kalshi, and the de-vigged 9-book consensus. Δ = movement on the home-team leg vs the baseline recorded at snapshot time. Archetypes per the Tater six-archetype methodology (see footer).
| Game | Kickoff (ET) | LIVE consensus | Δ since Jun 10 open | Story |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil vs HaitiView live market → | Fri 8:30 PM ET | 66.7% / draw 16.7% / 16.7% | — | Single Source |
| Turkiye vs ParaguayView live market → | Fri 11:00 PM ET | 33.3% / draw 33.3% / 33.3% | — | Single Source |
| Germany vs Ivory CoastView live market → | Sat 4:00 PM ET | 63.8% / draw 20.5% / 15.7% | — | Tight Consensus |
| Netherlands vs SwedenView live market → | Sat 1:00 PM ET | 56.5% / draw 23.2% / 20.4% | — | Tight Consensus |
LINES table New from Edition #3
Tracks the consensus handicap spread and totals lines across sportsbooks each edition — including the most-balanced line (nearest 50% over/under), its current price, and drift vs the prior edition. A permanent standing feature of Tater WC Daily.
| Game | Spread | Cover % | Drift vs prev | Best total | Over % | Drift vs prev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil vs Haiti | — | — | — | — | ||
| Turkiye vs Paraguay | — | — | — | — | ||
| Germany vs Ivory Coast | -1.0 | 53.9% | 3.0 | 51.9% | ||
| Netherlands vs Sweden | -0.75 | 52.4% | 2.75 | 54.6% |
Cover % = book-average implied probability for the favorite covering the spread. Over % = implied probability for over at the most-balanced total line. Drift = change vs prior edition tracked values.
Snapshot 2026-06-20T08:30Z. The slate table and live board carry current prices; the narrative reflects this snapshot.
Game by game
Blended market read: Brazil 87.0%, draw 8.1%, Haiti 4.9% — Tight Consensus (1.48pp cross-platform spread).
Blended market read: Germany 63.4%, draw 20.4%, Ivory Coast 16.1% — Tight Consensus (1.59pp cross-platform spread).
Blended market read: Netherlands 56.0%, draw 23.8%, Sweden 20.2% — Tight Consensus (1.99pp cross-platform spread).
Market favorites have held in 21 of 31 settled games (68%). Biggest shock so far: Qatar vs Switzerland — draw won against a 79.3% favorite (surprise index 86). On the 10 upset(s), the de-vigged books put the most weight on the actual result 6 time(s) — the case for reading every source, not one.
Methodology footnote
Six archetypes from the Tater playbook: Unanimous (<1pp platform spread), Tight Consensus (1–2pp), Quiet Edge (2–4pp), Camp Split (PMs and books disagree as groups), Lone Voice / Lone Hawk (one platform/book against the field). Sportsbook probabilities are de-vigged (proportional 3-way normalization). Prediction-market prices are traded order-book prices, treated as vig-free.
Compliance
Markets and odds shown are for informational purposes only. This is not gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.
About Tater
Tater is the discovery and comparison layer for prediction markets and sportsbooks. We aggregate real-time prices across 16 platforms, surface cross-platform edges, and help users find the best lines without holding accounts everywhere. Learn more at taterit.com.
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Tater World Cup Daily is produced by Tater (taterit.com) — prediction-market and sportsbook intelligence. Edition #10 of daily coverage running through the Final.