Market Scoreboard

Every settled World Cup game, scored against the pre-match market consensus. Higher surprise index = the result beat its price harder.

Market Scoreboard

Settled games only · static snapshot updated after each matchday

Favorites 59-26Brier 0.456 vs 0.667 randomLowest-conviction winner: Ecuador 10.8%

Game	Favorite %	Result	Verdict	Surprise index
Mexico vs South Africa	Mexico 68.6%	Mexico	✓	31.4
South Korea vs Czech Republic	South Korea 36.3%	South Korea	✓	63.7
Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina	Canada 53.5%	Draw	✗	73.3
USA vs Paraguay	USA 47.1%	USA	✓	52.9
Qatar vs Switzerland	Switzerland 79.3%	Draw	✗	86.0
Brazil vs Morocco	Brazil 57.6%	Draw	✗	75.0
Haiti vs Scotland	Scotland 61.9%	Scotland	✓	38.1
Australia vs Turkiye	Turkiye 56.5%	Australia	✗	81.8
Germany vs Curacao	Germany 93.0%	Germany	✓	7.0
Netherlands vs Japan	Netherlands 46.7%	Draw	✗	72.7
Ivory Coast vs Ecuador	Ecuador 38.1%	Ivory Coast	✗	71.1
Sweden vs Tunisia	Sweden 50.5%	Sweden	✓	49.5
Belgium vs Egypt	Belgium 60.7%	Draw	✗	76.4
Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay	Uruguay 66.2%	Draw	✗	77.9
IR Iran vs New Zealand	IR Iran 51.5%	Draw	✗	72.3
France vs Senegal	France 65.0%	France	✓	35.0
Iraq vs Norway	Norway 79.0%	Norway	✓	20.9
Argentina vs Algeria	Argentina 63.4%	Argentina	✓	36.6
Austria vs Jordan	Austria 68.9%	Austria	✓	31.1
Portugal vs Congo DR	Portugal 76.2%	Draw	✗	83.2
England vs Croatia	England 57.8%	England	✓	42.2
Ghana vs Panama	Ghana 40.1%	Ghana	✓	59.9
Uzbekistan vs Colombia	Colombia 74.8%	Colombia	✓	25.2
Czechia vs South Africa	Czechia 50.0%	Draw	✗	70.6
Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina	Switzerland 61.8%	Switzerland	✓	38.2
Canada vs Qatar	Canada 74.1%	Canada	✓	25.9
Mexico vs Korea Republic	Mexico 48.5%	Mexico	✓	51.5
USA vs Australia	USA 62.4%	USA	✓	37.6
Scotland vs Morocco	Morocco 57.7%	Morocco	✓	42.3
Brazil vs Haiti	Brazil 87.3%	Brazil	✓	12.7
Turkiye vs Paraguay	Turkiye 47.1%	Paraguay	✗	75.5
Netherlands vs Sweden	Netherlands 56.9%	Netherlands	✓	43.1
Germany vs Ivory Coast	Germany 66.6%	Germany	✓	33.4
Ecuador vs Curacao	Ecuador 83.3%	Draw	✗	89.2
Tunisia vs Japan	Japan 68.6%	Japan	✓	31.4
Spain vs Saudi Arabia	Spain 88.1%	Spain	✓	11.9
Belgium vs IR Iran	Belgium 68.4%	Draw	✗	80.1
New Zealand vs Egypt	Egypt 58.8%	Egypt	✓	41.2
Argentina vs Austria	Argentina 67.7%	Argentina	✓	32.4
France vs Iraq	France 90.4%	France	✓	9.6
Norway vs Senegal	Norway 42.8%	Norway	✓	57.2
Jordan vs Algeria	Algeria 62.1%	Algeria	✓	37.9
Portugal vs Uzbekistan	Portugal 81.5%	Portugal	✓	18.5
England vs Ghana	England 79.0%	Draw	✗	85.5
Panama vs Croatia	Croatia 67.3%	Croatia	✓	32.7
Colombia vs Congo DR	Colombia 63.3%	Colombia	✓	36.7
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Qatar	Bosnia and Herzegovina 68.6%	Bosnia and Herzegovina	✓	31.4
Switzerland vs Canada	Switzerland 37.3%	Switzerland	✓	62.7
Morocco vs Haiti	Morocco 82.5%	Morocco	✓	17.5
Scotland vs Brazil	Brazil 74.3%	Brazil	✓	25.7
South Africa vs Korea Republic	Korea Republic 60.6%	South Africa	✗	84.3
Czechia vs Mexico	Mexico 51.2%	Mexico	✓	48.8
Curacao vs Ivory Coast	Ivory Coast 80.6%	Ivory Coast	✓	19.4
Ecuador vs Germany	Germany 54.9%	Ecuador	✗	76.5
Tunisia vs Netherlands	Netherlands 87.3%	Netherlands	✓	12.7
Japan vs Sweden	Japan 45.1%	Draw	✗	72.5
Paraguay vs Australia	Draw 40.2%	Draw	✓	59.8
Turkiye vs USA	USA 48.0%	Turkiye	✗	71.9
Norway vs France	France 73.5%	France	✓	26.5
Senegal vs Iraq	Senegal 78.6%	Senegal	✓	21.4
Uruguay vs Spain	Spain 56.9%	Spain	✓	43.1
New Zealand vs Belgium	Belgium 81.3%	Belgium	✓	18.7
Egypt vs IR Iran	Egypt 36.6%	Draw	✗	64.6
Panama vs England	England 84.3%	England	✓	15.7
Croatia vs Ghana	Croatia 53.9%	Croatia	✓	46.1
Colombia vs Portugal	Portugal 52.0%	Draw	✗	76.5
Congo DR vs Uzbekistan	Congo DR 57.8%	Congo DR	✓	42.2
Jordan vs Argentina	Argentina 85.3%	Argentina	✓	14.7
Algeria vs Austria	Draw 47.0%	Draw	✓	53.0
Brazil vs Japan	Brazil 54.5%	Brazil	✓	45.5
Germany vs Paraguay	Germany 72.5%	Draw	✗	81.4
Netherlands vs Morocco	Netherlands 40.2%	Draw	✗	68.6
Ivory Coast vs Norway	Norway 45.5%	Norway	✓	54.5
France vs Sweden	France 76.5%	France	✓	23.5
Mexico vs Ecuador	Mexico 42.2%	Mexico	✓	57.8
England vs Congo DR	England 75.5%	England	✓	24.5
Belgium vs Senegal	Belgium 49.5%	Draw	✗	71.8
USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina	USA 71.6%	USA	✓	28.4
Spain vs Austria	Spain 74.8%	Spain	✓	25.2
Portugal vs Croatia	Portugal 57.8%	Portugal	✓	42.2
Switzerland vs Algeria	Switzerland 48.4%	Switzerland	✓	51.6
Australia vs Egypt	Egypt 40.2%	Draw	✗	66.7
Argentina vs Cape Verde	Argentina 85.3%	Draw	✗	89.2
Colombia vs Ghana	Colombia 67.8%	Colombia	✓	32.2
Canada vs Morocco	Morocco 53.5%	Morocco	✓	46.5

Surprise index = 100 − (favorite probability × 100). Higher = more surprising given market price. Brier score: lower is better; random baseline = 0.667. Market Replay: Mexico vs South Africa →