The number of the day
81%
Betfair's Norway away price against Iraq—the session's most aggressive quote
Markets price two June 16 fixtures with distinct profiles. France-Senegal (19:00 UTC kickoff) carries a "Tight Consensus" archetype with platform spread of 1.96pp, while Iraq-Norway (22:00 UTC) shows
The slate at a glance
LIVE consensus = current blended price from Polymarket, Kalshi, and the de-vigged 9-book consensus. Δ = movement on the home-team leg vs the baseline recorded at snapshot time. Archetypes per the Tater six-archetype methodology (see footer).
| Game | Kickoff (ET) | LIVE consensus | Δ since Jun 10 open | Story |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IR Iran vs New ZealandView live market → | Mon 9:00 PM ET | 16.7% / draw 66.7% / 16.7% | — | Camp Split |
| France vs SenegalView live market → | Tue 3:00 PM ET | 73.2% / draw 14.5% / 12.3% | — | Camp Split |
| Iraq vs NorwayView live market → | Tue 6:00 PM ET | 2.7% / draw 13.4% / 83.9% | — | Tight Consensus |
LINES table New from Edition #3
Tracks the consensus handicap spread and totals lines across sportsbooks each edition — including the most-balanced line (nearest 50% over/under), its current price, and drift vs the prior edition. A permanent standing feature of Tater WC Daily.
| Game | Spread | Cover % | Drift vs prev | Best total | Over % | Drift vs prev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IR Iran vs New Zealand | — | — | — | — | ||
| France vs Senegal | -2.5 | 53.1% | 3.25 | 54.5% | ||
| Iraq vs Norway | 0.25 | 50.2% | 4.0 | 46.1% |
Cover % = book-average implied probability for the favorite covering the spread. Over % = implied probability for over at the most-balanced total line. Drift = change vs prior edition tracked values.
Snapshot 2026-06-16T23:30Z. The slate table and live board carry current prices; the narrative reflects this snapshot.
Game by game
Markets price two June 16 fixtures with distinct profiles. France-Senegal (19:00 UTC kickoff) carries a "Tight Consensus" archetype with platform spread of 1.96pp, while Iraq-Norway (22:00 UTC) shows "Quiet Edge" at 2.1pp separation. Polymarket prices France home at 65.83% and Norway away at 81.09%. Kalshi tracks closely: 65.17% France, 80.90% Norway. Sportsbook consensus sits at 63.87% for France and 78.995% for Norway across 9 books each. Blended probabilities settle at 64.96% France home and 80.33% Norway away.
Nine sportsbooks cluster tightly on France-Senegal. Betfair leads at 65.3% France home, while BetMGM anchors the low end at 62.9%—a 2.4pp range. FanDuel posts 64.7%, Pinnacle 64.5%, DraftKings 63.4%. The draw trades between 21.1% (Pinnacle) and 21.9% (William Hill US, Fanatics). Senegal away prices span 13.1% (Betfair) to 15.7% (BetMGM). Derivative markets show the -1 France spread averaging 54.8% across 2 books (Pinnacle 54.1%, Bovada 55.6%), while the 2.5 total line attracts 54.1% average pricing across 4 books.
Betfair posts 81% on Norway away—the fixture's highest sportsbook quote and 2.005pp above the 78.995% consensus. William Hill sits at the opposite end: 76.7% Norway, offering 7.4% Iraq home and 16% draw. FanDuel and Betfair both price Iraq home below 6.5% (6.3% and 5.9% respectively), while BetMGM and Bovada sit near 8% (7.6% and 7.9%). The 1.75 Iraq spread line averages 49.4% across Pinnacle (48.8%) and Bovada (50%). Total market depth thins: 2 books price the 3.0 line at 47.7% average.
Platform spreads remain sub-2.5pp on both fixtures. France-Senegal's 1.96pp gap reflects tighter alignment between Polymarket (65.83%) and the 63.87% sportsbook consensus. Iraq-Norway's 2.1pp spread shows Polymarket (81.09%) leading both Kalshi (80.90%) and the books consensus (78.995%). Derivative line coverage favors France-Senegal: 4 books quote the 2.5 total versus 2 on Iraq-Norway's 3.0. Spread market depth matches at 2 books each, with France-Senegal's -1 line drawing 54.8% average price and Iraq-Norway's 1.75 Iraq spread at 49.4%.
Methodology footnote
Six archetypes from the Tater playbook: Unanimous (<1pp platform spread), Tight Consensus (1–2pp), Quiet Edge (2–4pp), Camp Split (PMs and books disagree as groups), Lone Voice / Lone Hawk (one platform/book against the field). Sportsbook probabilities are de-vigged (proportional 3-way normalization). Prediction-market prices are traded order-book prices, treated as vig-free.
Compliance
Markets and odds shown are for informational purposes only. This is not gambling advice. Always gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.
About Tater
Tater is the discovery and comparison layer for prediction markets and sportsbooks. We aggregate real-time prices across 16 platforms, surface cross-platform edges, and help users find the best lines without holding accounts everywhere. Learn more at taterit.com.
Tater — private beta
Get the next edition in your inbox
Daily World Cup market intelligence — free, one email per match day.
Sign up — get tomorrow's board →Subscribe to Tater Research
Get future publications in your inbox. No spam.
Tater World Cup Daily is produced by Tater (taterit.com) — prediction-market and sportsbook intelligence. Edition #6 of daily coverage running through the Final.